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Down to the Wire: Ohio

My perspective on national and local politics.

After months of campaigning, two national convention, and 4 very interesting debates, we are entering the final phase of the 2012 Presidential Election! Based on where we are now, who will win will pretty much come down to who wins Ohio. For more on why this is true, check out Nate Silver’s insightful analysis.

My money remains on the President as he continues to maintain a 3 to 5 point lead in the Buckeye state based on polling complied by RCP. I am purposely treating firms with ties as outliers due to the known right wing slants of these polling firms. The most recent poll from Time, has the President up by 5 points.

Of most concern to the Romney campaign is the lead Team Obama has amongst those Ohioans who have already cast ballots via early voting. Here the President enjoys a significant (60% to 30%) advantage.

With the full Obama get out the vote ground game focused on winning Ohio, Romney's odds of winning the state are down to a prayer that simply isn't going to come true. 

This post is contributed by a community member. The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Patch Media Corporation. Everyone is welcome to submit a post to Patch. If you'd like to post a blog, go here to get started.

The Stig November 08, 2012 at 04:45 AM
What is foolish about questioning the slavish devotion to a guy who is applying his "formulas" to a series of polls, which are, at best, a rough estimate of how people would vote if the election was held at that moment in time. Months ago you were certain that it was over. Even your boy Nate had Romney closing fast in the second week of October. One never knows how things will work out until all the votes are counted. That's why we have elections, not marketplace surveys.

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